Some Scenarios from the WTC Attack
What could be some of the (disturbing) subsequent scenarios after the attack
and whatever the US response is ?
- Lower tolerance for Arabs / Islamic and probably, generally all foreigners
from developing countries in the US. I am not using the word "racism"
here but it is quite likely that there would be more incidents of mistrust
and attack against foreigners in the US.
- If the US were to attack Afghanistan, a stepped up "jehad" by
the extremists. Would there also be a War between nations ?
- A heightened polarisation in the world polity --- and something not as
simple to understand as the US-USSR Cold War. There could be
increasing divisions between "peace-loving",
"democratic" countries on the one hand and
"fundamentalist", "rogue" nations on the other.
Religion would frequently be used as a criterion in the division.
- The recognition that "low-intensity conflict" (ie as
practised by terrorists) can never be totally eliminated and is, actually,
extremely difficult to prevent or avoid.
- It is quite unlikely that any "military strike" (or even the
capture and trial of those responsible) would actually prevent the
possibility of future attacks. A "military strike" would not
eliminate the terrorists. A War might take away a major support base
of terrorism if the War also results in change in governments and political
structures (democracy and the removal of fundamentalists from positions of
authority) --- but a War would have many more implications going beyond
eliminating a terrorist organisation.
- More budgets and effort on "security" -- whether it is
airports, public utilities or corporates. This will also cause greater
inconvenience to individuals accessing such facilities. Hopefully,
this will spur investments in non-invasive screening.
- There will be increased efforts to reduce the dependence on oil as a
source of energy.
In the immediate term (the next 3 months) there is a possibility -- ever so
slight -- that increased efforts (War efforts ?) by the US could actually spur
economic growth. Consumer confidence could be replaced by Government
action as the chief driver in the economy.