20-Jan-02

[update on 03-Feb :  See "Review of Options for Kashmir"]

Kashmir  :  Some Options

Here are some options I see for the Kashmir issue :

1.  India goes to war against Pakistan, destroys Pakistan's ability to support and encourage terrorism in Kashmir, India takes back PoK.

2. India withdraws its armed forces currently at the border following assurances (from the US ?) that Pakistan will take action against terrorism and will hand over the wanted to India.

Following option 2, there are some alternative scenarios :

a.  India and Pakistan engage in diplomatic talks and either Vajpayee and Musharraf achieve a breakthrough in 6 months or the "diplomacy" continues for years and decades.

b.  Musharraf is toppled by inimical forces and India and Pakistan are back to the same situation as when Musharraf overthrew Nawaz Sharif's government and India refused to talk to the "new Pakistan Government".

c. And here's the rabbit out of the hat :  India holds discussions only with the Kashmiri leaders and unilaterally makes an offer :

    i.  Kashmir signs an accord with India whereby it gains independence and seperate state-hood for an initial ("trial") period of 10 years.

    ii. During such initial period, India lends any assistance required (military, police, economic aid, soft-loans, civil servants ...)

    iii. Kashmir promises NOT to become a part of Pakistan but retain it's independence for a minimum of the initial period of 10 years.

    iv. Kashmir has the option to rejoin the Indian union anytime within the 10 years.

    v. On the expiry of 10 years, India and Kashmir review their co-operation. Kashmir may decide to join the Indian union, it may decide to retain full independence (and India gradually withdraws all support in the form of personnel -- civil, police or military) or it may decide to approach Pakistan and ask to be a state of Pakistan.