Programme for Monthly Meeting of the SMS Stocks and
Shares Interest Group, February 2004
===================================================


SMS Tel: 6243-3965


Date:   Friday, 20 February 2004

Time:   1930 - 2130 hours

Venue:  Suntec City Mall
        unit #03-026A

Location Map
How to get there
Q&A on Suntec venue


Fee:	FREE for SMS members ; $10 door fee for non-members


Topic:  Will STI Peak in 2008? - A Lesson from USA


Presenters: Assoc Prof Wong Wing-Keung
               Department of Economics, NUS ; and
            Ms Chen Dujuan, Masters Student
               Economics Department, NUS

Synopsis:
<< QUOTE >>
There have been numerous articles and reports describing different cyclical patterns according to the historical data
and charts, as well as predictions about future movements of stock prices in the guidance of the realized cycles.
Presently, cycle in Singapore stock market is a hot topic with some experts in this area predicting that the STI will
peak in 2006, while some predict STI will peak in 2008. This talk will give our analysis on both the cycles of Singapore
stock market and US stock market, and share with the audience the US experience in the application of the cycle theory.
<< UNQUOTE >>


Brief CV for Professor Wong Wing-Keung

Professor Wong is an Associate Professor with the Department of Economics, National University of Singapore.
He attained his B.Sc. from the Chinese University of Hong Kong and M.Sc. from the University of Wisconsin-Madison U.S.A.
Professor Wong completed his Ph.D at the Wisconsin-Madison in 1989, with major in Finance and Statistics. With his
specialty in Finance, Economics and Statistics, he now conducts Finance and Econometrics courses at both graduate and
undergraduate levels, and supervises several PhD, Masters and Honours year students.

Professor Wong has published over 100 research papers and books in Finance, Economics and Statistics, including some top
international journals during his service with NUS in the past 15 years. He has been invited to present many papers in
international conferences, served in the capacity of a referee or an associate Editor for some of the well-known local
and international Journals and conferences; and also chaired certain sessions during some conferences.

In 2001, Professor Wong was invited by the United Nations to conduct a workshop in Korea. In addition, OECD and several
prestigious universities from the US, UK, Canada, Germany, Australia and Hong Kong, e.g. University of Wisconsin-Madison,
Cornell University, University of Texas, University of Birmingham, McMaster University, Saarland University, Australian
National University and the University of Hong Kong, have invited him to present seminars or conduct joint research
activities.

He has also conducted many consultancy works to the private companies, Singapore Government Departments and international
academic societies and hold several visiting positions, supervisors and external examiners for several overseas
universities. He has also been invited to present seminars and talks by some private companies or universities. Presently,
he was invited by the Australian National University to be leader on their training and workshop to train government
officers and scholars from Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Myanmar and the other ASEAN countries on investment. In 2004, he is
also invited by the Head of the Statistics Division in OECD to work on a project to study the Business Cycles.



Brief CV for Ms Chen Dujuan

Chen Dujuan is a postgraduate student in the Department of Economics, National University of Singapore. In 2002, she
attained her double-major bachelor degree of Economics from Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, one of the six
most famous financial and economic universities of China, and enroll into the master program of economics, NUS, studying
financial econometric, behavior finance and investment management. In NUS, she has completed several papers on different
financial topics such as cycle theory, value at risk, and contagion effect in bank system. As an assiduous and fast
learning person with enthusiasm and passion in the financial field, she has possessed wide knowledge of finance and
economics ranging from basic economics and investment management to advanced econometrics and financial modeling. Presently
she is working on a project on Business Cycle with Professor Wong Wing Keung and the Head of the Statistics Division in
OECD.



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