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Betting & Bankroll Mangement

Soccer Fair Odds

Fair Odds (UEFA CL)

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Betting with Bookmaker / Bookies

Ever watched a soccer match where you would like to place a bet? Or maybe its a EPL match Chelsea vs Derby where you think -- 'ah, sure win for chelsea', a definite banker you may think. Chances are you most probably be right, but wait, a look at the odds offer by the bookmakers may looks something like ~1.05 for Chelsea win. I am sure it does it does not look so appetising after all. Each dollar of bet winning you 5 cents. You'll need something like 20 of these so call 'bankers' to win a dollar of bet and it take just ONE freak result (out of the 20) to ruin your day. Football is round and freak results do occur! In the long run, the bookmaker will hold the edge over you.

Always bet with value/fair odds

Want to be profitable in the long run against the bookie? Then always bet with value / fair odds.

What is value? Put simply it is when you think/analyse that the bookmakers odds are set at a level which the reward outweighs the risk.

To check whether a bet is value all you have to do is :
·   Estimate the winning chance % of a side
·  Get the best decimal odds for the bet
·   Multiply the % chance of a win against the odds

Any result of 1.00 or greater means that you have value!!

Value example
If we played a simple game - and I let you toss a 6-sided dice - what would the fair price be for any 1 side coming up ?

Each side has 1/6 chance (or 16%) so you can work out fair value by dividing 1 / 0.16 (16%) and getting the number 6.00 (decimal odds) or 5/1 (fractional odds).

So if I offer you a bet at a price of better than 6.00 you should take it  - if it's less than that (say 5.00) you should not take it - even though the price of 5.00 sounds high - it is not value.

So in the long run, a profitable punter is one who not only can predict accurately the winning chance of a bet but also one who value bet! Predicting a Chelsea win alone is not enough, you must ensure the odds offered are in line with the value (% to win) that you analysed/estimate.
Leverage against the bookies with fair odds

So you know about value betting already. What about estimating the winning chance of a bet you may ask. Straightforward answer is that its up to each individual opinion or analysing method. Examples would be like head to head record, goals scored/conceded, home/away record and season record, injuries, suspension etc.

I will be posting the estimated winning chances (based on statistic of past/recent results) under soccer fair odds section for English Premier League.

Using statistic (maths) to predicts future events in terms of probabilities of win, draw, loss, etc. There is no verdicts on who will actually win. Situation resembles tossing of a two sided coin or throwing of a dice: you can't predict anything surely, but you can compute probability of whatever you want. Then, you compare fair odds (in decimal notation, equal to 1/probability) to the line odds offered by a bookmaker/bookie, and decide whether to place stake or not.

Remember, Be careful

Football betting is always a gamble, please bet within your finanicial means. Do not bet the utilities bill fund or your house rent fund no matter whether you think its a 'Banker' or not ! Freak results do occur.